Long before “serious person” Paul Ryan was Speaker of the House of Representatives and tasked with implementing the domestic agenda of the Trump administration, and long before he became a perpetual college sophomore really into Ayn Rand, he received an early education in philosophy, sociology, politics, economics, and especially martial arts at the “Cobra Kai” dojo. It was at this dojo where he learned such valuable lessons like “mercy is for the weak” and “an enemy deserves no mercy.”
Ryan (seen above, left) was an impressionable 15 year old youth when he observed his then God-Emperor Kreese and an older student, Johnny Lawrence, get their rightful title stolen from them and the dojo by East Coast elitist Daniel LaRusso, a transplant from Newark, New Jersey, and his mentor, a man LaRusso called “Mr. Miyagi”, who Ryan much preferred prior to this interaction, back when he was the owner of “Arnold’s Drive In” somewhere in his memories of Wisconsin.
Agreeing Loudly looks forward to reviewing this biopic of Speaker Ryan tentatively titled: Young Paul Ryan.
Two weeks from today the seemingly endless 2016 Presidential Campaign will wind to a close and the voters (those that have not voted early, which I highly recommend if your state allows for early voting. This will be organized into three parts.
Today will be the Presidential Election itself. One week from today will be the Congressional elections in the Senate and House. And the day before the election will be the Gubernatorial and state legislative elections. I’m doing it this way for two reasons: one, the Presidential election has historically been very static in the weeks leading up to the final vote and especially in this election, everyone has feels very, very strongly about well….something. Two and most important, the President isn’t a dictator. At best, the President has third most control of any politician in this country over daily lives. The individuals that have the most at stake in who becomes President, members of the United States armed forces, vote at alarmingly low rates.
Presidential Election Predictions
The Popular Vote.
Hillary Clinton (D) – 48.0%
Donald Trump (R) – 43.0%
Gary Johnson (L) – 5.0%
Evan McMullin (I) – 2.0%
Jill Stein (G) – 1.5%
Other – 0.5%
What to Watch For:
West Coast polls won’t close for awhile, the popular vote will look closer than it ends up because heavily Democratic states like California, Oregon, and Washington have not reported yet.
The big surprise here would be Evan McMullin finishing ahead of Jill Stein. This is because I expect some Stein supporters to come home to the Democratic Party and because Jill Stein has been incredibly underwhelming all cycle, just like in 2012. While I respect the enthusiasm and some of the principled stances of members of the Green Party and Jill Stein herself, like Gary Johnson, she has been way out of her element all cycle. In her defense, the normally funny John Oliver struck a low blow when he made fun of her for playing in a very-early 90’s Indigo Girls sounding rock band. There are many other reasons to not support Jill Stein for the highest office in the land, there is no need to ridicule someone’s incredibly healthy hobby or past career.
I rounded to the nearest .5% for simplicity sake.
I also think a good slice of the traditional GOP (as in they voted for Romney and McCain) electorate who are dissatisfied with Trump as nominee come home, we’ve already been seeing evidence of this the past few days.
This is the danger of making predictions two weeks out but I will discuss a few with you.
Iowa (GOP) – has been trending GOP the last few cycles, has two GOP Senators, a GOP Governor, and is a state I was personally on the ground for in 2008, a spectacular experience, and 2010, still the biggest landslide defeat I and another member of this podcast has ever been apart of. It was a brutal cycle, but unlike other parts of the nation, the red trend and swing in Iowa is real and could be a harbinger of things to come in the Upper Midwest generally.
North Carolina (DEM) – is this the new Virginia for the Dems? I think so. But it will still be razor thin if the polls state as they are in the final two weeks. I think most of the close MoE states will ultimately break Hillary Clinton’s way because she actually has an organized campaign on the ground, unlike Trump.
Florida (DEM) – another state that the GOP could have easily had this cycle on their column had they not nominated Trump. Expect Marco Rubio to run 5-6 points ahead of Trump here. If this state is called for Hillary before 11 PM, we’ll have a shorter night.
Georgia and Arizona (stay GOP, but someday…) – these are two must-holds for Trump. If Hillary pulls off the upset in Georgia, she has won in a landslide. If she wins in Arizona as the polls show now, she has possibly won more electoral votes than Barack Obama did in 2008. I see both of these states ultimately staying the lightest of red, but they will continue to slowly trend blue in upcoming cycles at the local and statewide levels.
Ohio (stay GOP) – this is the state I feel the least confident about, but I think Trump pulls this one out and benefits from lower youth turnout in college towns, combined with a noncompetitive Senate election in the GOPs favor. Large turnout by key Democratic constituencies kept this in Obama’s column in 2012. If Ohio is won by Hillary it will be on the strength of the ground campaign, where investments are considerably less than they should have been due to Hillary having easy paths to 270 without Ohio and incumbent GOP Senator Rob Portman being up by double digits.
Nevada (DEM) – a state that has always been strong for Hillary Clinton, both in the 2008 and 2016 Democratic Primaries and in 2016 General Election polling. This is also part of a broader blue trend over the past decade in the Southwestern United States that includes New Mexico, Colorado, and perhaps soon, Arizona.
Utah (Independent) – discussed further below. I see McMullin pulling this off with just over 30% of the vote, followed by Trump and Clinton being somewhere between 20 and 30% of the vote.
Clinton – 5 best and 5 worst states.
Best: California, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland, and Vermont.
Worst: Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, West Virginia
Trump – 5 best and 5 worst states.
Best: Wyoming, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kentucky, Kansas
Worst: Utah, California, New York, Vermont, Maryland
Evan McMullin wins the state of Utah and its 6 electoral votes.
Why? Because the significant Mormon population in Utah does not trust or like Trump for a variety of reasons and because he is a favorite son who is on the ballot there, as well as 10 other states (a few of which he will also do relatively well in considering he has received next to no attention by even non-major party standards). Overall, McMullin is on the ballot in 11 states and those states, especially Utah and Idaho will drive his 2% national margin.
Evan McMullin, a career CIA officer and former Peace Corps member and just 40 years old, will then run and win office statewide in Utah once Orrin Hatch retires, which he will do relatively soon because unlike the Democratic Party, the GOP actually builds a bench, cares about its farm system, cultivates talent, and despite its image as being an old white guy who is afraid of change, they have considerably more young leaders than the Democratic Party does.
Voter Turnout, despite this historic election, is lower than in 2012 and is the lowest since 2000 when George W. Bush controversially defeated Al Gore to win the Presidency.
Why? Because despite declarations on the ALC2C podcast and on The Margin of Error podcast – fear and hatred of the other side only drives turnout to a point. To reach historic or large (by American standards) turnout you need a positive, optimistic, and hopeful message and the candidates need to have above-the-water favorability ratings.
Favorability ratings are about likability and are a better assessment of a candidate. Approval ratings are the assessment of how well a President is doing their job.
In the last six decades, the two years where turnout was the highest were in 1960; where both John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon had sky high favorability ratings. In 2008, while much lower than the famous Kennedy-Nixon election, Barack Obama and John McCain had the highest favorability ratings of the modern political age throughout most of the campaign. This was quite an accomplishment considering the era we live in right now – characterized by increasing government gridlock and partisanship, vitriol, and the public losing trust and confidence in American institutions.
Simply put, voting FOR something is always more desirable than voting AGAINST something. Fear and hatred of the other side does and has worked politically in past decades, but only if it is combined with lower turnout, which is ultimately the goal with those campaign tactics.
Clinton, for breaking that glass ceiling and making history.
The world, for avoiding a Trump Presidency, an idea that terrifies many around the world to no end. Gambling on a personality as volatile as Trump with the largest nuclear arsenal at his fingertips would strike fear into the hearts of a lot of people. They’re not alone.
2020 GOP nominee, who gets to face an incumbent that enters office with -9 to -10 favorability ratings and the general historical trend of an incumbent party not securing a fourth consecutive administration unless it is the Great Depression and WWII. In other words Hillary Clinton will have to do a very, very good job as President and have a lot of voters actually think that to have a fighting chance at re-election. Of course the caveat to this is if the GOP still… cannot get its act together for a national election, which brings me to…
Trump, not for losing the election, although that I’m sure will bother him considerably. No, he is a loser even if he wins by some miracle because he has dragged American politics and the honor of the highest office in the land to perhaps its lowest point in our history. Barack Obama, no matter what you thought of his policies, is a basically good and decent man. While I disagree with Mitt Romney, John McCain, and George W. Bush on policy, I always believed they woke up each day wanting to do what is best for their country. Trump has ran this campaign for the glorification of his own ego, has further divided an already divided country, and through his hateful and spiteful rhetoric, has brought out the worst sides of some of us.
His supporters, who will be cast aside and derided by most of the GOP elite after this loss. Some have reached Donald Trump’s levels of despicable behavior throughout this campaign cycle, many have lost faith in the two-party system and the economic system as well, and no matter why they are voting for Trump, they all still deserve a country and political leadership who serves the public trust and common interest, rather than special interests. As do all Hillary Clinton, Evan McMullin, Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, Pirate Party, etc. supporters.
2018 Democratic candidates for office, who will have their work cut out for them at the start and suffer from a third straight midterm backlash to a Democratic administration.
Two weeks to go. Congressional predictions to come next week. Gubernatorial and state predictions to come the day before election day.
Desperate to continue justifying the nations bloated “defense” budget, Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR), the GOP’s “rising star” took to the stage Monday night to briefly talk about why the nation should elect Donald Trump as its next President. After giving passing mention to why his years of experience as a reality T.V. star qualifies him to be commander in chief, Cotton, an Army veteran himself, argued passionately for re-arming the nation for the next fight: the War in Iran. However, he did not stop there.
Concerned that the Iran War will not equal the potency and excess in the defense budget that the nearly fifteen year long two-front Afghanistan-Iraq Wars have brought, he also highlighted a second enemy: the roving band of sixth graders on their bikes who have been loitering all summer around Front Street.
The mastery of the elementary school years by the numerous 11 and 12 year olds around the community has given newfound confidence and outright arrogance, to the incredible dismay of curmudgeons and pre-mudgeons everywhere. “I just wanted to enjoy my summer, yet here come these kids on their bikes and 32 ounce sodas rotting their teeth, and they just sit on those bikes, and I don’t what they’re up to…”, says Brian Kilmeke, an enthusiastic Cotton supporter who is already backing his 2020 Presidential bid just in case Trump is unable to make America great again…
“When I was that age you didn’t see us disrespecting elders like that, and acting all entitled, I seriously worry about kids these days”, Kilmeke added.
Sen. Cotton promised that not only would the defense coffers continue, but increasing the budget to meet the growing threat of “Icy Mountain Dew” gangs on Front Street across American cities and towns would a top goal of his administration…. I mean after Trump loses and all. In explaining his choice for the next abstract, impenetrable threat to America, Cotton offered these words: “I needed to create an enemy that is not only present everywhere, but also equally disliked John and Jane and union Joe too. Unless it is your kid on one of those bikes, those 12 year olds and their multi-colored freezies fit the bill. We’ll probably go after those who prefer purple, blue, and red first. Those are the best flavors. I can tell those are the leaders.”
Add this to throwing away the Iran Deal, starting a War with Iran, and ensuring a third and fourth round of tax cuts for billionaires, we can be assured that things are just getting started.
Washington D.C. — At approximately noon today, an Associated Press journalist accidentally published the mass shooting in the United States template he had been working from for the past six years of his employment. Below is the text of that template.
In what has seemingly become a daily occurrence in the United States, the latest mass shooting took place at [insert: city or town name here] and while we are still waiting for information to come in, authorities report that the alleged shooter is [insertfirst-middle-last name of shooter here] and has been [insert: apprehended or shot and killed or in critical condition here]. It is unclear at this time whether he [keep male pronoun throughout, a damn good time-saving assumption Jason!!] acted alone or whether there were accomplices, but we will be staying on top of this as more reports come out.
[First-middle-last name] is a [insert: ethnic or racial background here] and had a history of [insert: “choose your own adventure”story here — ifWhite, disturbed or had history of mental health issues, ifBlack or Hispanic, potential gang-related activities, ifMuslim, obvious references or potential ties and speculation to current terrorist group threatening the new key Middle Eastern region, and ifAsian, see white person societal excuse for mass killing and perhaps add stress-related family pressures].
Prominent [insert: Democratic politician here] said that (his or her) “heart goes out to the victims and their families, it is inconceivable that this senseless, tragic, and avoidable violence must continue in our country. I call on my colleagues of both parties to act on sensible and publicly supported gun violence legislation.”
Prominent [insert: Republican politician here] said that (his or younger his) “thoughts and prayers are with the victims and their families. I call upon my colleagues to not jump to hasty conclusions unless it ties into the wider ‘War on Terror’ rubric, and I also call on my colleagues of all faiths and denominations to pray in the House and Senate tomorrow.”
It is expected that the current round of conversations that we’ll hold nationally and publicly will result in a [insert: exact lay out of non-action and explanation of absolutely nothing changing] and this will be a hot-button issue on the campaign trail this fall, although [insert: statistic about how few people actually care about this when they vote to reaffirm the prevailing notion that nothing will change here.]