2016 Preview – Resolutions and Predictions

by Troy M. Olson

Clinton-Trump Cartoon

2016 Resolutions:

  1. The “Agreeing Loudly” Podcast will continue on a weekly basis with some breaks for the holidays with your co-hosts: Jered Weber, Pat Meacham, and Bill Nentl, with the occasional fill-in host, guest, or contributor. There may also be the occasional one-off special podcast that goes more in-depth on a specific topic area.
  2. This site will produce more written content than it did in 2015, and there will be more contributors added to the fold.
  3. New written content to includeMeach’s Links (semi-annual)
  4. The Grift Machine (written by Carson and Troy, semi-annual) Examples: 1. For-profit colleges, 2. For-profit law schools, 3. Wounded Warrior Project, 4. Unpaid Internships
  5. More Carson Starkey articles and material (ex: “Conversations from the Iraq War” and “Live Tweets from Carson Starkey”)
  6. An American History Series as told through the lens of consequential Presidential Election campaigns and results (starting with 1800 and concluding with 2008, hopefully before the 2016 Presidential Election).
  7. Historical anthology series of “Tales from…” (ex: New York City, Minnesota, as needed…)

2016 Predictions:

Democratic Primary Campaign

Winner of the Iowa Caucus: Hillary Clinton

Winner of the New Hampshire Primary: Bernie Sanders

Winner of the Democratic Primary and 2016 Democratic Presidential candidate: Hillary Clinton

Abbreviated Shortlist of potential candidates for the bottom of the ticket:

* = prediction for who the choice is if the top of the ticket is Clinton

  1. Fmr. Gov. Martin O’Malley (MD)*
  2. Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT)
  3. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (MN)
  4. Sen. Al Franken (MN)
  5. Sen. Sherrod Brown (OH)
  6. Sen. Tim Kaine (VA)
  7. Sec. of HUD Julian Castro (TX)
  8. Gov. Jay Nixon (MO)
  9. Gov. John Hickenlooper (CO)
  10. Gov. Tom Wolf (PA)

Republican Primary Campaign

Winner of the Iowa Caucus: Ted Cruz

Winner of the New Hampshire Primary: Donald Trump 

Likelihood of a GOP brokered convention: now up to 35 percent

Likely GOP establishment candidate for the “stop Trump” movement: Marco Rubio, unless he finishes behind Chris Christie or  John Kasich in the NH primary, then it becomes Christie or Kasich.

Who the GOP is calling every other night as a compromise/emergency establishment candidate?   Willard “Mitt” Romney

* = prediction for who the choice is if the top of the ticket is Trump

  1. Gov. Nikki Haley (SC)*
  2. Gov. Terry Branstad (IA)
  3. Gov. Rick Snyder (MI)
  4. Gov. Brian Sandoval (NV)
  5. Gov. Susana Martinez (NM)
  6. Gov. John Kasich (OH)
  7. Sen. Kelly Ayotte (NH)
  8. Sen. Tim Scott (SC)
  9. Sen. Orrin Hatch (UT)
  10. Sen. John Cornyn (TX)

Winner of the 2016 Presidential Election: Hillary Clinton, unless the GOP nominee is Marco Rubio, then it is in 50-50 toss-up/2000 Bush-Gore territory.

Bold Prediction: whoever wins the 2016 Presidential Election will be a one-term President.

Not-so-bold prediction: 2016 will not be the most important election of our lifetimes (in fact, I predict lower turnout than 2012).

The GOP will narrowly retain the Senate 52-48 (with Democratic pick-ups in WI, IL, and either NH or OH, and Republican pick-ups in either NV or CO).

The U.S. House will see almost no change (give or take 5 seats) in its composition and still be more or less comprised of a 247-188 GOP advantage.

The State of Minnesota will get a new Michelle Bachmann–Jason Lewis, who will win the Minnesota 2nd Congressional District and replace retiring congressman and “professional profiteer off of millennial veterans” John Kline. Lewis, the firebrand radio host will become a minor footnote in American political history by becoming the first Limbaugh-esque radio shock jock to put their money where their mouth is, and enter the political fray.

Hillary Clinton makes history and becomes the first female United States President. Lost on most Democrats in the exuberance of this victory will be the fact that she faces a hostile GOP Congress, the majority of gubernatorial mansions belong to the GOP, the GOP holds a majority of state legislative bodies, and the upcoming usual mid-term backlash against the party that holds the White House will ensure that the Democratic Party reaches its lowest point electorally in 100 years, despite poll after poll showing a Republican Party that is resoundingly unpopular with the American people as well.

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